October crisis looms on the political horizon

OTHER HEADLINE: NEW CONSTITUTION

The AKP government has turned recent defections into a strategy. A separate committee is also working on the defection of MPs. The ‘rotten apples’ within the opposition parties are being identified and brought into the AKP one by one. With this piecemeal approach, it seems highly unlikely that the 360 MPs required for an early election and a constitutional referendum will be secured. The AKP-MHP regime needs to bring another party on board to reach the figure of 360, which it requires both for the constitutional debates and for an early general election. This will be one of the most important items on the agenda for the new parliamentary term beginning on 1 October.

Another key issue concerns the immunity cases pending in Parliament, particularly that of Özgür Özel, leader of the NEW Party. Although the stance on lifting parliamentary immunity – which the government holds as a trump card – has been dismissed as “inappropriate” by both Parliament Speaker Kurtulmuş and MHP leader Bahçeli, it remains a strong possibility. It is currently one of the most significant sources of tension in Parliament.

WILL THERE BE CHANGES TO THE ELECTION LAW?

It would come as no surprise if Parliament were to decide on an early election during this legislative year. There is no doubt that, starting from the opening date of 1 October, the prospect of an early election will become Parliament’s central agenda item. However, before that, another issue may be added to the agenda for debate: amendments to the electoral and political parties laws. Although MHP leader Bahçeli signalled his intentions on this matter early on, he gave no concrete clues. Yet it is quite clear that he views these amendments specifically as a means of keeping DEM on board.

THERE IS ONLY ONE YEAR LEFT

The regime, keen not to get bogged down in the intricacies of the constitutional issue, may wish to proceed with more conciliatory topics. However, it must act swiftly if the amendments are to come into force in time for the next election. It has only one year to act. The consequences of the step Bahçeli took on 1 October two years ago are still being felt. We have now reached the home straight. The assembly, which will already go down in history as the most ineffective ever, is set to make a decision regarding an election that will shape the coming years. This, too, will be one of history’s ironies.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Siyasetin Ekim sıkıntısı kapıda, published in BirGün newspaper on September 23, 2026.